CSAT Occasional Paper No. 67, Failed State 2030
Nigeria—A Case Study
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This monograph describes how a failed state in 2030 may impact the United States and the global economy. It also identifies critical capabilities and technologies the US Air Force should have to respond to a failed state, especially one of vital interest to the United States and one on the cusp of a civil war. Nigeria becoming a failed state is not a foregone conclusion. However, should the oil-rich state of Nigeria, a nation likely to provide up to 25 percent of US light, sweet crude oil imports by 2030, fail, then the effect on the United States and the world economy would be too great to ignore. This failed-state scenario is one of four that comprised the Blue Horizons study in 2008. It explores the implications of what it would mean for the US Air Force to respond to a failed state in 2030, one with a large population that has resources vital to the Western world. The capabilities necessary to detect threats, characterize the environment, rapidly deploy and protect responders, and sustain operations long enough to create conditions for the indigenous people to resurrect their fallen nation are all issues that need to be explored. From these, this monograph helps the study team understand what types of technologies the US Air Force should pursue to enable it to lead and prevail against the challenges and surprises posed by future failed states.